Luke EatonData Driven Recruitment

Issue 43 4 min read

Is the 80/20 Rule Bullshit?

Howdy recruiters! Today let's explore your founder's favourite slogan/method of valuing human beings, the 80/20 rule

Recruiters, leaders, anyone working in talent, you’ve heard this before:

“80% of your results come from 20% of your efforts.”

Or…

“80% of your companies output comes from 20% of your employees.”

It’s used to justify everything from performance management decisions to salary banding to who gets made redundant during a restructure.

But there’s just one teensy weensy problem......

It’s not true.

And when you use it to drive people decisions, you are basically running your business based on a TIkTok meme.

Where did this idea come from?

The Pareto Principle came from an Italian economist, who observed that around 80% of Italy’s land was owned by 20% of its population. That specific wealth distribution was then generalised into a principle:

“80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes.”

And like a lot of oversimplified general observations, it took off...

Management books... Loved it.

Performance consultants.... Built entire frameworks on it.

Leaders under pressure.... Use it to draw a line through their org chart with a red pen.

But here’s the catch: it’s an observation, not a law. And when applied to human performance, the evidence is anecdotal.

Is there any evidence this applies to human performance?

Not really.

There is very little empirical data that consistently supports the idea that 20% of employees produce 80% of the output.

In fact, studies of productivity and output usually show wide variability, with performance shaped by:

You know, the stuff us as recruiters bang on about all the time.

Performance is complex. People don’t operate like factory machines. You can’t just assume x employees are y% of the results without looking at the system they work within.

In fact, forced ranking systems inspired by the 80/20 rule, like GE’s now infamous “vitality curve” have been discredited for damaging team morale, creating toxic competition, and failing to recognise high-performing teams where collaboration matters more than individual metrics

So where doesn’t the 80/20 rule actually work?

The 80/20 rule sounds clean and tidy, but here are several real-world examples where it simply doesn’t hold up.

Cognitive Work Output

A 2016 study published in the Journal of Economic Behaviour & Organization showed that output among knowledge workers is far more evenly distributed than 80/20 suggests. While there are top performers, productivity tends to follow more of a normal distribution, not a dramatic power law.

Customer Service & Support

In customer service teams, you’ll often hear “80% of complaints come from 20% of customers” , but support ticket data across SaaS companies regularly shows variance day-to-day, team-to-team, and even region-to-region, depending on product launches, bugs, and time zones.

No static ratio applies consistently.

Software Teams

Research from Google’s Project Aristotle and studies from DORA (DevOps Research and Assessment) show that team effectiveness depends more on psychological safety, clear goals, and supportive processes than on individual brilliance alone.

And in many software teams, no single engineer is responsible for 80% of shipping velocity. Collaboration is the multiplier.

But it feels true sometimes…

Yes. That’s the trick.

The 80/20 rule feels right when you want to simplify a messy situation. When you’re under pressure, and looking for a lever to pull fast.

If your top recruiter is producing amazing results, great, learn from them. Build systems that scale what they’re doing. Use them to mentor others.

But don’t fall into the trap of just rewarding them and not everyone else. Because when that recruiter leaves. You’ll be back at square one with an exhausted team, no system, and no talent strategy.

So what should you do instead?

If you want to identify high-value effort, ditch the arbitrary ratio and try this :

Define Clear Value Metrics

Look at Systems, Not Just People

Build Consistency First, Then Optimise

Learn from Peak Performers Without Worshipping Them

TL;DR – Is the 80/20 Rule Bullshit?

Mostly.

The real issue, is leaders replacing well thought out people and organisational development, with idioms they saw on the internet. People are using the 80/20 rule to justify lazy thinking, rushed restructures, and unfair performance management.

So next time you hear someone say:

“80% of results come from 20% of people”

Ask them:

“Cool, which study was that from?”
“What’s the system those people are working in?”
“Are we using that as a guide… or as a shortcut to avoid doing the hard analysis?”

Because your people deserve better than back-of-the-napkin maths from 1896.

Luke Update

In a few weeks i'll be heading over to San Fransisco to hang out with my friends at Ashby, a16z, and TeamOhana. If you're in the area and want to meet up, I'll be there 12th-17th May.

Well... that's issue forty two! If you have any questions about it, or any feedback on this issue of The Data Driven Recruiter, grab me on LinkedIn for a chat.

I'll see you next week!

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